بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
[“Earlier on Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, and cancelled the state of emergency, which was declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek…” (www.yenisafak.com/ar/,16/10/2020)]. The Kyrgyz capital has witnessed violent protests; protesters took control of government headquarters, demanding the dismissal of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, who is loyal to Russia, and this has been achieved for them… So, what is the reality behind the events in Kyrgyzstan? Is the Russian influence on its way out of this Islamic country? Is there any role for America in this conflict? Jazak Allah Khair.
To get a clear answer and to understand the reality of events in Kyrgyzstan, the following must be clarified:
First: the general situation in Kyrgyzstan:
1- Kyrgyzia or Kyrgyzstan, is one of the Islamic countries in Central Asia, its borders are connected to China today from the East Turkestan side, in addition to other Islamic Central Asian countries: Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan has been subjected to the Russian Tsarist occupation since 1876 CE. There were many revolutions against the Russian occupation there. However, Russia managed to abort them. Kyrgyzstan became a republic within the Soviet Union, meaning that it was ruled directly from Moscow from 1876 until 1991 when the Soviet Union dismantled and Kyrgyzstan declared its independence. But the political class in it was immersed in their loyalty to Russia, so Russia, after its independence, had a great influence over Kyrgyzstan…
2-Kyrgyzstan was ruled since its independence by the leaders of the Communist Party after they changed their masks and established parties with multiple names. They were directly under the orders of Moscow, but the period of Russia’s weakness during the nineties and its retreat towards itself gave America some access to these politicians. During the neoconservative rush during the era of George Bush Jr, and America’s declaration of the war on Islam and its launch of the American wars on Afghanistan and Iraq, America managed to penetrate Central Asia and began to weave relations with its rulers and political forces, and within this framework it established the Manas Military Base near the capital, Bishkek, to help the American army in its war against Afghanistan.
3-America’s sinking into the Iraqi quagmire between 2003 and 2009 coincided with the return of some vitality to the government in Russia after Vladimir Putin assumed the reins of power in Moscow. So, America was forced in 2014 to dismantle its Manas Military Base near Bishkek, and in return Russia strengthened its military base in Kyrgyzstan, which it established in 2003. In 2015 Kyrgyzstan cancelled its agreement with America:
[“Kyrgyz Prime Minister Tamir Sariyev ordered his government to cancel the 1993 bilateral agreement with the United States. The government said in a statement that the agreement will not be effective as of next August 20.” (Al-Jazeera Net, 22/7/2015)]. Thus, Russia would have succeeded in completely removing America’s influence from Kyrgyzstan. Russia had included Kyrgyzstan in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that it established on the ruins of the Soviet Union since its founding in 1992, and Kyrgyzstan continued to be a member in it even during periods which America had influence in Bishkek. It also added it to the Eurasian Economic Union since its establishment approximately in 2014.
4-From a local point of view, the political class in Kyrgyzstan, as in most countries that became independent as a result of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, is characterized by severe corruption. Competition for power in it quickly turns into a severe struggle for competitors to gain the wealth of the Ummah, and any concepts of care are absent. The people are left wandering without a guardian to look after them. Because the depth of corruption is great, the people in Kyrgyzstan in 2005 revolted against President Akayev, who ruled since independence. So, he fled to Russia. In 2010, people revolted against President Bakiyev in a massive wave of anger that was interrupted by acts of violence that claimed dozens of victims and ended in a coup by the security forces against the president, who fled to the south of the country, and then left to Kazakhstan, Atambayev was installed as interim president…
5- Although Russia was fuelling the situation against Islam and Muslims in Central Asia, with its tools, the rulers who had thrived in the Soviet era. Yet, the Islamic thought was spread again in Kyrgyzstan before its independence and after that, and Hizb ut Tahrir was actively calling for the rule by Islam and the establishment of an Islamic Khilafah (Caliphate), its activity was remarkable, especially in the southern regions that are geographically part of the Ferghana Valley, despite the fact that the authorities in Kyrgyzstan, under the direction of Russia which is spiteful of Islam, like the tyrant of Uzbekistan and the rest of the countries of Central Asia, so they faced the Hizb’s activity with severe repression. But Islam in Kyrgyzstan still has a remarkable influence in many regions, despite the heavy attack on it from Russia and its followers.
Second: Recent unrest in the capital, Bishkek:
1- President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, who has been ruling the country since 2017, had planned to obtain a majority in the last parliamentary elections that would enable him to amend the constitution, so that he could run again after the end of his constitutional term, as the constitution provides for only one presidential term of six years. The announcement of a landslide victory for the parties loyal to and close to the president in the parliamentary elections was on 4/10/2020. Only four of the 16 parties managed to cross the parliamentary threshold (7% of the vote), meaning that the new parliament (120 members) was supposed, according to the Jeenbekov’s plan, to be formed by the parties loyal to and close to him, [“…and the Central Elections Commission in Kyrgyzstan announced that 4 of the 16 political parties participating in the elections succeeded in entering the new parliament consisting of 120 seats, which led to supporters of the 12 parties not represented in the parliament to come out in demonstrations against the results.” (Turkish Daily Sabah 6/10/2020)]. This plan that undermined the political rights of other parties that did not succeed (“and the 12 losing parties issued a joint declaration in which they said they did not recognize the election results…” (TRT Arabic, 6/10/2020).
2- Thus, supporters of political parties rejecting the results of the elections flocked from the early hours of the morning to Alato Square and in the vicinity of the Prime Minister’s Office, then these angry crowds attacked and seized government headquarters, and actually seized the parliament building and seized the presidential office. As well as some crowds stormed prisons and specific detainees were released. The headquarters of the National Security Committee was attacked in the capital, Bishkek, and the former President Atambayev, who was sitting in a cell in it serving an 11-year sentence on corruption charges, was released. Sadyr Japarov was released, and the court quickly cleared him of the hostage-taking charge in 2013. This accusation for which he was imprisoned, and parallel to the capital, massive popular marches were launched in the regional centers condemning the government and calling for the president to step down, and in the southern regions where the president is from, and from where some rallies in his support were launched, but were not at the level of those demanding his removal.
3- The sweeping wave of protests was enough to terrify the state, so the Prime Minister and the Speaker of Parliament submitted their resignations, as did the heads of some regions. President Jeenbekov disappeared and the security services disappeared with him from the street. The president issued his statements from a hidden place via the Internet, and announced that he asked the security services not to attack the protesters. He accused the opposition of conducting a coup and the seizure of power, and he declared that he was ready for compromise. He demanded the Central Elections Committee to investigate the irregularities and cancel the results if necessary, in an indication of the intensity and strength of the protests against him, [“Jeenbekov called on the political parties to be patient, addressing the youth: “You have shown that the value of Kyrgyzstan is greater than the struggle for power, and that is by action not by words, our goal is to ensure peace and order in our country, I am confident that we will emerge from this crisis with joint efforts.” He added, “I thank the youth who have not stopped to fulfill their responsibilities in the country.” (AR Haberler.com 7/10/2020)]
4- Then the Central Elections Committee announced the cancellation of the election results, and opposition parties formed the Coordinating Council of the Opposition Forces, which appointed Sadyr Japarov as the new Prime Minister during an emergency session of Parliament held in a hotel in the capital, Bishkek, it is he who was released by the opposition from prison. [“Sadyr Japarov was appointed as the new president to the government after a vote during an emergency session, instead of the former prime minister, Kubatbek Boronov, who submitted his resignation, adding that the current parliament will continue to function until the election of a new parliament.” (RT, 7/10/2020)] … [“Today, Wednesday, more than 80 MPs out of 120 attended an extraordinary session of Parliament during which they voted to approve the appointment of Japarov to the position with his proposed government. Jeenbekov then signed a decree confirming the appointment of Japarov as prime minister alongside his government, according to a statement by the presidency…” (Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020)].
5- [“… and earlier today, Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, and canceled the state of emergency, which was declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek.” Those participated in the session, during which the president’s resignation and cancellation of the state of emergency, was unanimously approved, included both Jeenbekov and Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov, along with Parliament Speaker Kanat Isayev. Before the vote, Jeenbekov gave his last speech to the members of parliament, in which he stated that his abdication was in order to ensure peace in the country and prevent the division of society…” (Yenisafak Arabic, 16/10/2020)] And so, [“the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, strengthened his authority, after the presidential powers were transferred to him after the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, which he “presented” yesterday, and promised to preserve the country’s foreign policy. Japarov said today, Friday, in front of the parliament: “I thank Allah that the change of power was peaceful… I will do my best to preserve the foreign policy and other important directions.” (Sputnik, 16/10/2020)].
Third: Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan:
1- The Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan is strong and branched. Russia built a military base in Kyrgyzstan during the period in which America was building its military base, so the Russian influence was not absent from Kyrgyzstan even in the period when America was able to introduce some of its influence to it. Russia built a military base in 2003. [“The Russian Kant Air Base was opened in Kyrgyzstan in October 2003, as an aviation component of the Collective Security Treaty Organization’s Rapid Deployment Force. Its main tasks are to air cover the ground operations of the CSTO. It is equipped with aircraft, Su-25SM and Mi-8MTV helicopters…” (RT, 28/3/2019)]. On this same day, Thursday, Moscow and Bishkek signed, during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to the Kyrgyz capital, a protocol that introduces amendments to the agreement between the two countries regarding the Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan. Assistant to the Russian President Yuri Ushakov said:
[“A number of agreements have been signed, including the signing of a document amending the 2012 agreement regarding the status and conditions of the Russian military base stationing in Kyrgyzstan.” For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin said, “The Russian military base in Kyrgyzstan is an important factor for security and stability in Central Asia and contributes to the defense capability of Kyrgyzstan.” This base includes Sukhoi-25 attack aircraft and Mi-8 helicopters…” (Al-Dustour Newspaper, 28/3/2019)]. So the president of Kyrgyzstan, Jeenbekov is completely loyal to Russia, and coordinates with it in the Collective Security Treaty, and obeys it in everything it wants, such as developing the military base.
2- But Russia is very afraid that some opposition parties that have contacts with America will seize power in Bishkek and break Russia’s solitary influence in it. Despite the fact that Russia establishes relations with most of the opposition parties in Kyrgyzstan to ensure that they are not hostile to Russia and that some of these parties are loyal to Russia and are not outside its sphere of influence, but Russia is monitoring this struggle for power in an attempt to prevent the interference of external forces in it and it is in control over the security services that could intervene at critical moments. [“Russian President Vladimir Putin said today, Wednesday, that Moscow is in contact with all parties to the conflict and hopes for a return to the democratic process soon,” (Al-Jazeera Net, 7/10/2020)]… and what increases Russia’s fear is that heavy conflict between the forces loyal to it sometimes erupt, as has been seen periodically, especially recently after President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, who has ruled the country since 2017, tried to manipulate the election result, so that he can run again after the end of his constitutional term, and then turmoil will occur, especially if fraud is revealed in the elections, which makes it possible to be exploited by America’s followers, even if they are relatively few and thus embarrassing Russia…
3- The Russian original position is against protests against the presidents loyal to it. This is Russia’s position, unless it is forced to hold a different one in order to preserve its interests, as it does not allow the situation to go out of its control. [“The Kremlin considered today that this country is experiencing a state of chaos.” The Spokesman to the Russian Presidency, Dmitry Peskov, said that Russia has obligations to prevent the complete collapse of the situation in Kyrgyzstan.” (Al-Jazeera Net, 8/10/2020)]. Russia, which is in control over the security services in Kyrgyzstan, does not allow the parties that have contacts with America and their supporters to lead the scene in Bishkek, and it has been holding the stick of President Jeenbekov who declared that he will resign without resigning until Russia decides that based on its interests. That is why Russia sent the deputy head of the presidential administration in the Kremlin Dmitry Kozak, this week, to hold talks with Jeenbekov and Japarov, and to study matters closely… [“The Russian embassy said, yesterday, Tuesday: The “essential role of the head of state” in ensuring the future development of Kyrgyzstan was emphasized during Kozak’s visit…” (Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020)], and all of this is to take the necessary measures… However, it is unlikely that Russia will directly intervene militarily, as it believes that its followers are able to take control of matters in Kyrgyzstan, and that the security forces are under its grip and are at its disposal if it wishes to change a president with another one of its followers, especially since many of the political forces are its followers!
4- Now that the protests have increased, Russia decided to “calm the situation” that the President of Kyrgyzstan approves the appointment of Sadyr Japarov as prime minister, after the parliament voted in favour of bringing him back to power on 14/10/2020. This was after his recent release from prison at the hands of his supporters, where he was serving a sentence for more than 11 years. [“Today, Wednesday, more than 80 MPs out of 120 attended an extraordinary session of Parliament during which they voted to approve the appointment of Japarov to the position with his proposed government. Jeenbekov then signed a decree confirming the appointment of Japarov as prime minister alongside his government, according to a statement by the presidency…” (Al-Mayadeen, 14/10/2020)].
5- [“… and earlier today, Friday, the Kyrgyz Parliament approved the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, and canceled the state of emergency, which was declared a week ago in the capital, Bishkek.” Those participated in the session, during which the president’s resignation and cancellation of the state of emergency, was unanimously approved, included both Jeenbekov and Prime Minister Sadyr Japarov, along with Parliament Speaker Kanat Isayev. Before the vote, Jeenbekov gave his last speech to the members of parliament, in which he stated that his abdication was in order to ensure peace in the country and prevent the division of society…” (Yeni Safak Arabi: 16/10/2020)].
And so, [“the Prime Minister of Kyrgyzstan, Sadyr Japarov, strengthened his authority, after the presidential powers were transferred to him after the resignation of President Sooronbay Jeenbekov, which he “presented” yesterday, and promised to preserve the country’s foreign policy. Japarov said today, Friday, in front of the parliament: “I thank Allah that the change of power was peaceful… I will do my best to preserve the foreign policy and other important directions.” (Sputnik, 16/10/2020)].
Fourth: The American role:
1- As for America, its position was clear, it exploited what happened in the elections to embarrass Russia and the Kyrgyz authority. [“The United States urged all parties in Kyrgyzstan to exercise restraint and find a peaceful solution, expressing concern about practices that marred the elections and led to major protests. A spokesman for the US State Department told the AFP “We call on all parties to renounce violence and resolve the conflict over the elections by peaceful means.” The US State Department indicated that a monitoring mission supported by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe “concluded with credible information about the buying of votes that marred the elections.” (AlJazeera.net 7/10/2020)].
This means that the new conditions in Kyrgyzstan, which are characterized by political ambiguity, provide America with the appropriate atmosphere to enter this country, and it undoubtedly has contacts with some opposition parties. It was accused at the beginning of this year of spending 60 million dollars in cash to support parliamentary candidates and associations so that its followers have some influence. In addition to other funds spent by the George Soros Foundation for the purpose of destabilizing a country dominated by Russian influence, and all of that money was spent without the knowledge of the Jeenbekov government, according to the time company website, 10/1/2020.
2- America has followers in the Kyrgyz opposition, but they are a minority and are not effective in eliminating Russian influence in Kyrgyzstan to this day, but they are active to exploit any incompatibility between Russia’s followers competing for power, and they would have nearly succeeded had Russia not ordered Jeenbekov to resign to calm the situation. Russia is working on appointing others of its men after elections held under its eyes and ears.
Fifth: The conclusion is:
1- The struggle for power in Kyrgyzstan is primarily a local conflict, and is due to the lack of maturity in the governance mentality of the leaders of the political scene in this Muslim country. And because of this, disputes and conflicts arise, which in essence are ethnic, regional or tribal, and of opposition parties, as well as “loyalties”, even if they have general names. However, experts distinguish its tendencies so that they do not deviate from the ethnic, regional or tribal essence. This conflict, and in this case, it is not intended to remove Russia’s great influence from this small republic, but rather Russia is afraid of America’s contacts with some opposition parties in light of the chaos that arose after the declaration of the parliamentary elections’ results, it is afraid that America will gain a foothold again after Russia made its efforts to get it out of Kyrgyzstan, and so it will have the influence with which it can work against Russia in and around Kyrgyzstan.
2- This will remain the situation of the Muslims in Kyrgyzstan and elsewhere, where appalling rulers who rule them, who push the Ummah downhill from low to lower, and are only concerned for their personal interests; they view the ruling as spoils, they hold no view of looking after the affairs of the Ummah that appoints them or remain silent over their appointment by the kaffir colonizing them. The situation will remain so, until the Ummah rise up and the most powerful group in it rises up, and expels these rulers and uproot the kaffir colonizer from the Muslim countries, and builds its state, the Khilafah (Caliphate) state, on the basis of its Deen, and installs a ruler to rule it according to what Allah (swt) has revealed, who will be its support for a decent life and to its path to heaven, Allah willing.
[يَغْفِرْ لَكُمْ ذُنُوبَكُمْ وَيُدْخِلْكُمْ جَنَّاتٍ تَجْرِي مِنْ تَحْتِهَا الْأَنْهَارُ وَمَسَاكِنَ طَيِّبَةً فِي جَنَّاتِ عَدْنٍ ذَلِكَ الْفَوْزُ الْعَظِيمُ * وَأُخْرَى تُحِبُّونَهَا نَصْرٌ مِنَ اللَّهِ وَفَتْحٌ قَرِيبٌ وَبَشِّرِ الْمُؤْمِنِينَ]
“He will forgive for you your sins and admit you to gardens beneath which rivers flow and pleasant dwellings in gardens of perpetual residence. That is the great attainment *And [you will obtain] another [favor] that you love – victory from Allah and an imminent conquest; and give good tidings to the believers” [As-Saff: 12-13]
1 Rabii’ Al-Awwal 1442 AH