بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Answer to Question
America suddenly announced the dangers to its forces and interests in the Gulf, originating from Iran and its pro-groups; it raised the level of readiness and sent aircraft carrier and military ships, and even sent a naval hospital suggesting a near confrontation in the Gulf. This coincided with the end of America’s policy of exemption for countries which import Iranian oil to stop Iran’s oil exports. Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz to the oil exports of the Gulf states, and tension continues to prevail in the region! Is this a prelude to a war that will be waged by America in the region? Or there is another objective? May Allah reward you with the Good.
In order to clarify the picture, we will review the following issues:
1- Indeed, there is a significant increase in tension in the region, including what is mentioned of American shipping of its naval vessels, including the Lincoln aircraft carrier, the largest aircraft carrier with 90 military aircraft, and it sent a squadron of B-52s to its bases in the Gulf region, raising the alert among its troops in the region and evacuating non-essential staff from its embassy in Baghdad. What was noticed was the accompanied quick threats to Iran: [The United States sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle East to send Iran “a clear and an unmistakable message.” National Security Adviser John Bolton said his country was acting “in response to a number of troubling and escalatory indications and warnings”. “The dispatch of the warship to the Gulf follows reports of a possible attack on US forces, according to Reuters quoting an unnamed US official … Bolton said in a statement that “The United States is deploying the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a bomber task force to the US Central Command region to send a clear and unmistakeable message to the Iranian regime that any attack on United States interests or on those of our allies will be met with unrelenting force.” (BBC 6/5/2019)]. In fact the aircraft carrier entered the Suez Canal on 9/5/2019, and then arrived at the Arab Sea waters on 14/5/2019. The media reported that America [wants to send 120 thousand troops to the region, which was denied by US President Trump, although Acting Defense Minister Patrick Shanahan has put forward the plan to Trump … (RT 14/5/2019, quoting the New York Times)], all on the backdrop of possible Iranian threats (CNN was quoted, quoting its sources, on May 7th, that the authorities of the United States got intelligence information indicating that Iran plans to deploy short-range ballistic missiles on its small vessels in the Gulf. (RT 14/5/2019)
2- What made the American tension in the atmosphere more than just statements is what happened to four commercial vessels near the port of Fujairah in the UAE and the attack on the vital Saudi oil facilities, and this was as follows:
A- [Four commercial vessels near the UAE’s territorial waters were subject to sabotage without causing any casualties, according to what the UAE Foreign Ministry said on Sunday. These developments come as US pressure mounts on Iran, whose president Hassan Rouhani admitted earlier that his country is actually facing a difficult situation (Middle East Online 12/5/2019)]
B- [The Yemeni group “Ansar Allah” announced, on Tuesday, carrying out of attacks by drones on vital Saudi facilities … Al Masira channel quoted a military source, confirming that “7 drones carried out attacks on vital Saudi facilities,” the source pointed out that “this large scale military operation comes in response to the continued aggression and siege on our people,” adding that “Ansar Allah are ready to carry out more special and cruel strikes in the event of continued aggression and unjust siege.” (Sputnik Russian Agency 14/5/2019)]. With these two incidents, American statements became of an imminent danger in the Gulf and found good grounds, and the US tension and fueling of the situation in the Gulf is different from similar cases in the past.
3- However, with all this tension in the Gulf, which suggests that the war is at the door, the statements of both sides, America and Iran, give another picture that the war is excluded! These statements include:
– [Trump said in a press statement on Thursday, at the White House, in response to a question on whether the United States intends to wage war on Iran: “I hope it does not happen.” (RT 16/5/2019)]
– [(Reuters 16/5/2019) Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi said on Thursday that the Trump administration does not have a mandate from Congress to wage war on Iran, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Pelosi told reporters that the Republican administration will make a statement in closed session to senior members of the so-called Gang of Eight, on Iran on Thursday)]
– [(Reuters 16/5/2019) The New York Times stated on Thursday, quoting unnamed officials in the US administration – President Donald Trump has told acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan that he does not want to go to war with Iran. The paper said that the president told Shanahan this on Wednesday morning)]
– [Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei said there would be no war with the United States, in comments published on state media and on his Twitter account on social media network site, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said: “We are not seeking war, nor are they seeking it.” (BBC 14/5/2019)]
– [US Acting Defense Secretary, Patrick, told a news conference that the US administration’s goal of strengthening its military presence in the Arabian Gulf is “deterring acts not going to war .” (France 24, 22/5/2019)] End quotes
These American and Iranian statements indicate that what the media is reporting about a major American-Iranian war is uncertain. What the Iranian leader’s statement to his people that Iran is neither seeking war nor America is seeking it, is the strongest. That is according to the statements about war, and the destruction of American warships in the Gulf is excluded. And in the extreme expectations, if the military action takes place, it will be limited to save the face of the parties. The statements of US officials are frequent that they do not want to change the regime. US National Security Adviser, John Bolton, said: [“Our policy is not intended to change the Iranian regime, but we want to put unprecedented pressure on the government of Iran to change its behaviour “… (Ad-Dustoor website 3/10/2018)]
4- So what are the reasons for this escalation and tension in the region? The answer is thatby taking a close view, the reasons are three:
The first reason is the world oil markets: America has a different view today on the oil issue than a decade ago, since the technology succeeded in extracting shale oil, and allowed the export of its oil although it is an importer of oil, and the Chinese exit to reduce the trade deficit with America is to increase its import of US oil. At the same time, America continues to import cheap oil from cheap rulers in the Gulf states, especially Saudi Arabia, whose oil money is accumulating in America without being able to withdraw until the need arises, so it borrows and its sovereign funds are not touched except by America. According to this reality, the US pressure on Iran and the denial of oil exports will raise the price of oil globally and America will benefit from it, as the increase in the price of oil is suitable for the cost of production of shale oil, the International Energy Agency talks about the aggravation of “confusion in the outlook for supply” of oil, and it talks about America’s ability to compensate the reduction of Iran’s and Venezuela’s exports. [The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the world would need a very small surplus of oil from OPEC this year, as the recovery of US production will compensate for the drop in exports from Iran and Venezuela. (Reuters, 15/5/2019)] As well as [The International Energy Agency said the US oil production from the seven major rock formations will rise to a new record of 8.49 million barrels per day in June. (Reuters, 17/5/2019)], that is, the US oil companies are pumping more oil in the wake of the Gulf tension and is pushing Iran’s production back through sanctions.
Most importantly, oil prices are rising as US tension threatens to sabotage oil tankers and oil facilities. [Oil futures rose on Wednesday amid rising tensions in the Middle East, hurting global supplies, overshadowing the unexpected surge in US crude inventories. Brent crude futures were up 53 cents, or 0.7 percent, to settle at $71.77 a barrel, while US crude futures closed at $62.02 a barrel, up 24 cents, or 0.4 percent. Oil prices were supported after Saudi said on Tuesday that drones bombed two oil pumping stations two days after the sabotage attacks on oil tankers near the United Arab Emirates. (Reuters 05/15/2019)].
Thus, it is clear that America as a result of the tension in the atmosphere with Iran benefits from the high price of oil, and is able to raise its production of rock oil, and the higher the price of oil, American companies rushed to produce more shale oil in an unimaginable quantities in America. There is no doubt that America sees this tension as a benefit to its oil companies, especially in light of the business thinking that dominates the Trump administration.
The second reason: the signing of a new nuclear agreement with Iran guarantees the lion’s share to the American companies in the Iranian market.
It is well known that America is playing an open game with Iran in order to sign a new nuclear agreement with it, including its missile program and its influence in the region. When the US Secretary of State visited Iraq: (what Pompeo told Abdul Mahdi in fact, according to the source familiar with the details of the meeting was quite different, and even the Iraqi prime minister was surprised by the tone in which Pompeiro spoke to him. Pompeo asked him to deliver a message to Tehran that the United States was not keen on the war and that all Trump wanted was a new nuclear deal – An agreement that he can attribute to himself … Noon Post 15/05/2019, quoting the British Middle East Eye). And the American president does not hide this goal: (The US President expressed his desire to contact the leaders of Iran to resolve the crisis, which is becoming increasingly volatile, and his administration left his telephone number with the Swiss so that the Iranians can contact him if they wanted to negotiate. The American President said: “What they should be doing is calling me up, sitting down and we can make a deal, a fair deal,” Trump said. “We just don’t want them to have nuclear weapons. It’s not too much to ask. And we would help put them back into great shape.”We’re not looking to hurt Iran,” Trump said in remarks to reporters at the White House. “I want them to be strong and great and have a great economy. But they should call, and if they do, we’re open to talk to them.”
The White House left a telephone number with the Swiss, who represent Iran in its diplomatic relationship With America, to be the link of communication if Tehran wants to negotiate with Washington (CNN, 11/5/2019). As well as what RT reported on 15/5/2019 that US President Trump said he is sure that Iran will want to negotiate soon). In the same context, the “Intikhab”, the Iranian site close to the reformers, revealed on Tuesday the objectives of the visit of Omani Foreign Minister Yousef bin Alawi to the capital Tehran. The site said in a report on 21/5/2019 that (the purpose of that visit is mediation between the United States and Iran, and to discuss the subject of targeting the US embassy in Baghdad, and other developments in the region …) The site added that (the Omani minister, Yusuf bin Alawi, carried with him on his surprise visit to Tehran a message from US President Donald Trump) without giving details.
Third, and the most important reason, is the process of forming a US-Arab coalition that would include a Jewish entity against Iran.
Looking at a number of American policy objectives in the region and the regional positions. it shows that the most important reason for America today to escalate tension with Iran is to build this alliance and bring it out officially, that is, to transfer the issue of the conflict in the region from the (Israeli) aggression and occupation of the blessed land of Palestine which must
be fought to remove it and return Palestine to the land of Islam, to a sectarian conflict in the region with Iran! In other words, the integration of a Jewish entity in the region. This goal, which America and Britain have failed to achieve for decades. Today it hopes to achieve it through the treacherous rulers, especially in the Gulf, who are rushing to normalize with the Jewish entity under the American pretext itself “fear of Iran”
This is clearly manifested in the position of the Jewish entity: “On the backdrop of tension in the Gulf, the prime minister of the Jewish entity, with the presence of US Ambassador Friedman, said, “There is a new efflorescence, a new renaissance of relations between us and many of our Arab neighbours, and many non-Arab Muslim countries. We are united in our desire to stop Iranian aggression. Israel and all the countries of the region and all the countries who seek peace in the world should stand together with the United States against Iranian aggression. We have to keep on strengthening the State of Israel and keep on strengthening the indispensable alliance with America.” (RT 14/5/2019). For the Jewish entity to stand with Arab and maybe Islamic countries, with America to stop the Iranian aggression indicates that the talk of the American tension plan is about building a regional coalition against Iran, led by the United States, in which a Jewish entity is involved, and that tension, inflammatory statements and some military actions as in Fujairah and Aramco’s facilities are a process to produce this regional NATO, and the process of production is still taking place. Its prelude is the hosting of Riyadh on Monday, 6/4/2019 to the Arab-American meeting in which Qatar participated in preparation for the launch of the Middle East Strategic Alliance, known as the “Arab NATO” in the media. “Saudi Press Agency reported: [The meeting was held “with the high participation of Saudi Arabia, the United States of America, the United Arab Emirates, the Kingdom of Bahrain, the State of Kuwait, the Sultanate of Oman, the State of Qatar and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” The meeting, it explained: “is an important step in the process of launching this alliance, which aims to enhance security and stability in the region and the world.” (RT 10/4/2019)]. Therefore, the process of building this military alliance is in full swing. The joy of the Jewish entity of the security coordination with Arab and (Islamic) countries against Iran means that the Jewish entity is involved in those American deliberations with these rulers, but without a declaration. Its announcement may be delayed till after America’s plan for peace, with the most important article being the normalization of the Gulf traitor rulers with the Jewish entity.
1- The escalation of events and tensions in the atmosphere is not a prelude to a comprehensive war between America and Iran, but is likely to achieve the three reasons mentioned above, but this does not prevent limited short strikes from taking place to save the face of the parties to lift the embarrassment because of their inflammatory movements and their statements of threat, intimidation, deterrence and behaviour change!!
2- It is painful that although America does not conceal its objectives in its statements and threats, the rulers in our countries, especially the Gulf region, justify America’s arrogance and domination over the region as if they are deaf, dumb and blind and do not understand, and then they lose this world and the last. Allah (swt) says the Truth:
﴾وَمَنْ كَانَ فِي هَذِهِ أَعْمَى فَهُوَ فِي الْآخِرَةِ أَعْمَى وَأَضَلُّ سَبِيلاً﴿
“And whoever is blind in this [life] will be blind in the Hereafter and more astray in way” [Al-Isra’: 72].
19 Ramadan 1440 AH